The Lynx Have Always Been Underdogs This Season

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"Minnesota needs this" at Basketball Feelings
"Streaming Music, The Illusion of Choice" at Typebar Magazine

It's not looking great

There were two things I was worried about for the Lynx going into the playoffs, and both have to do with the roster. When Rookie of the Year Olivia Miles' breakout season was fully taking flight, part of her ascendency was rooted in nobody knowing what to expect. She has been a big enough threat from distance to keep defenders close, and as soon as they bit, she could blow past them straight to the post. She makes underhand reverse layups look easy. When that didn't work, she could dish it to Natasha Howard at the post, Kayla McBride for a three, or Courtney Williams for an easy mid-range jumper. Add Nia Brodie for an extra kick of knockdown three shooting, and you had a starting five that waltzed through the first half of the season.

And then Napheesa Collier returned from injury. The Lynx stayed winning games, but the play between Collier and Miles hasn't gelled into the lethal pick-and-roll you'd expect. And that's a huge problem. We saw it with Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo on the Bucks—two ball-dominant players who are scoring savants that struggle to make their game a click. Collier has never played with a guard like this before, and it shows: on offense, she's tentative on her positioning. What makes Collier a threat is her ability to shoot from anywhere—but if Howard is at the post, Williams is floating at the key, and McBride is posted up for a three, it doesn't leave Collier any easy options. Brodie fit well into the system as another outside shooter. Pushing Collier to the corner, however, neutralizes her incredible rebounding.

The Lynx have been able to make this work, mostly, before the playoffs.

There are two glaring issues in the playoffs now, however: age and depth. Howard is 35. McBride is 34. Brodie is 31. Williams is 32. Collier is 30. Miles is 23. The Lynx's core players are veterans, but their offense is run by a rookie. That opens the team up to rookie mistakes. Miles gets flustered quickly, takes risks on sketchy passes, and doesn't always know how to read the other team's defense. That leaves the Lynx's veterans hung out to dry.

The other issue with the roster? Coach of the Year Cheryl Reeve doesn't like playing the Lynx's bench. The roster got cracked up after last year's playoff run, and Reeve doesn't always trust the new players. Newly acquired guard Maya Caldwell relieves Miles and McBride for short stretches, center Dorka Juhász gets some random minutes, though she missed all of last season due to extensive overseas play. The rest of the roster gets rotation for garbage time, but rarely make an appearance in critical moments.

That system works for the regular season, but in the last two games that the Lynx have faced the Liberty, it's clear the team is stuck. The Liberty has completely overrun the Lynx's offense through two key avenues: neutralizing Olivia Miles and sheer size. Size is a big problem. Even without 6'4" Satou Sabally on the floor (currently injured), the Liberty lead with 6'6" powerhouse Jonquel Jones, the incredibly versatile play of 6'4" Breanna Stewart, and the defense of 6'4" Leonie Fiebich. All season long, Miles to Howard in the paint was a surefire layup. Against the Liberty, at 6'2", Howard is completely smothered. On offense, the extra length of the Liberty is hard to defend at the rim—and that doesn't account for the fact that their tall frontcourt are all shooting threats, either. Mobilize Collier, Howard, and Brodie to protect the rim, and Jones, Stewart, and Fiebich have no trouble knocking down an open three.

In Sunday's game, the Lynx shut down multiple rim attacks only to let the Liberty shoot over 50% from three, even with elite shooter Sabrina Ionescu only going three for eight behind the line. It also doesn't help that 6'11" Han Xu was able to knock down a wide-open three. Stewart and Jones both sank two on 66% three shooting, and Fiebich put the nail in the coffin, hitting four out of five three-point attempts. The perimeter is wide open for Liberty in tonight's game.

The other main problem for the Lynx is 5'11" and French. Pauline Astier, in both recent matchups, has been an absolute menace to Olivia Miles. On every possession, she has Miles marked with an aggressive full-court press, neutralizing Miles' ability to push the pace and frustrating her chance to set an offense. Astier's hands are everywhere, swiping at the dribble, screening passes, and stopping just short of fouling. Without Miles' ability to take the ball up the court, the Lynx are sunk. They seemingly have no Plan B. On rare possessions, Miles and Collier would give-and-go over Astier just to advance the ball. It would seem like this is the perfect opportunity to deploy an aggressive pick-and-roll. And yet, the Lynx haven't found a way to sort that out against the Liberty.

If these issues were newly discovered during the first playoff game last Sunday, then so be it. But Sunday was a reprise of September 18th's game against the Liberty: Reeve had a firsthand view of what Astier+length looked like, and seemingly didn't adjust. Even if the Lynx pull out a win tonight against the Liberty, they'll be on their heels for the third game in the series after the Liberty can readjust again.

As I wrote about for the excellent publication Basketball Feelings, Minnesota needs this. The Lynx's run has been a city-solidifying event that's brought the community together after last January's horrendous militarized ICE occupation. After the last two games, it's hard to see the team advancing to the next round.

I'm not legendary coach Cheryl Reeve, but it feels like the Lynx need to do two things: keep pressure up on defense, and create space for Olivia Miles. Astier needs to be screened hard and taken out of each play if the Lynx are going to set an offense. I'd also love to see Juhász get more minutes. At 6'5", she's got the reach to protect the rim on her own, freeing up Collier, Howard, and Brodie to stay focused on the perimeter instead of crowding the paint. Juhász doesn't get a lot of WNBA minutes, but she's high-level play tested overseas and pushed Hungary deeper into the FIBA World Cup this summer, further than anyone would have guessed. But most importantly, the Liberty won't be expecting her to have a bigger role.

That's the big weakness of the Lynx in this series: the Liberty know that Miles wants the layup, that Howard is camping at the rim, that McBride is on the three line, and that Williams is looking for a mid-range jumper. All of these athletes are elite at those shots, but the Liberty are expecting each and every one of those attempts. The X factor for the Lynx these past few years has been Napheesa Collier and her versatility on offense. Maybe, for tonight, it's time to put the ball back in her hands.

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